Real inflation rate shadowstats pdgqjgo

Real inflation rate shadowstats

05.03.2021

Fulham72089

Headline February PPI-FD inflation (Goods and Services) contracted month-to-month in all major categories, except Construction. The aggregate series declined by 0.59% (-0.59%) in February, having gained 0.51% in January, with annual inflation slowing to 1.28% in February 2020, from 2.05% in January. But then there’s “real” inflation, which according to ShadowStats is “a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living.” Using methodology that was being used in 1990, you can see what “real” inflation should look like in this chart from ShadowStats: Shadowstats uses outdated methodologies, which, in my opinion, are rather poor as they don't reflect or capture changes in the evolution of our economy. And the spread between Treasuries and TIPS only provides us an idea of what the market expectations of inflation are, not what the real level of inflation is. Over the last years, the Inflation rate measured according to standards used during the 1960s-1970s would average 10% per annum. The fact that during heavy inflation periods, the price of High Order Capital Goods falls (but the price of Low Order Consumer Goods rises) is also used in order to trick real figures. To put it bluntly – there is no one perfect formula to calculate the rate of inflation or the difference in living costs. What Shadowstats offers is an overestimation but after comparison to other independent indices and the pre-1980 method of measuring inflation, this overestimation we are talking about is less than 2%.

4 Sep 2008 The CPI used to include the value of a house in calculating inflation and now Is the use of "hedonic quality adjustment" in the CPI simply a way of lowering the inflation rate? It is certainly true that an index based on home prices would be more Update: Also see Jim Hamilton's "Shadowstats debunked.

If the above scenario seems ridiculous, then you have to conclude that ShadowStats’ inflation is way too high, at least their 1980-based version. ShadowStats provides 2 measures of inflation, the 1980-based (currently just under 10%) and the 1990-based (currently just over 5%). To construct the 1990-based alternate, it seems, one adds some 3.75 percentage points to the inflation rate. Inflation will never be an exact science but a variety of measurement approaches by different organizations are all pointing to similar levels of inflation. The CPI, PCE, spread between Treasuries and TIPS, and now the BPP, all point to roughly 2% or sub 2% inflation. ShadowStats has shown a higher level of inflation prior to 2008 – you have to compare the rate change both before and after 2008 to make any meaningful conclusion. Since ‘increasing the money supply 500%’ did not cause inflation to uptick either via BillionPrices, CPI, or ShadowStats, your conclusion is obviously incorrect.

Inflation rates for 2020 through 2029 are forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan source. Inflation rates for years beyond 2029 are based on the mean average inflation rate (3.221 percent per year) since the U.S. government began collecting these statistics in 1913.

To put it bluntly – there is no one perfect formula to calculate the rate of inflation or the difference in living costs. What Shadowstats offers is an overestimation but after comparison to other independent indices and the pre-1980 method of measuring inflation, this overestimation we are talking about is less than 2%. But the "real" inflation rate reported with older methods could be anywhere from 6% to 10%, according to ShadowStats. Inflation eats into Social Security raises every year. That's bad enough. But the coronavirus could also help create the illusion of a higher COLA in 2021.

Headline February PPI-FD inflation (Goods and Services) contracted month-to-month in all major categories, except Construction. The aggregate series declined by 0.59% (-0.59%) in February, having gained 0.51% in January, with annual inflation slowing to 1.28% in February 2020, from 2.05% in January.

Inflation rates for 2020 through 2029 are forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan source. Inflation rates for years beyond 2029 are based on the mean average inflation rate (3.221 percent per year) since the U.S. government began collecting these statistics in 1913.

But then there’s “real” inflation, which according to ShadowStats is “a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living.” Using methodology that was being used in 1990, you can see what “real” inflation should look like in this chart from ShadowStats:

But then there’s “real” inflation, which according to ShadowStats is “a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living.” Using methodology that was being used in 1990, you can see what “real” inflation should look like in this chart from ShadowStats: Shadowstats uses outdated methodologies, which, in my opinion, are rather poor as they don't reflect or capture changes in the evolution of our economy. And the spread between Treasuries and TIPS only provides us an idea of what the market expectations of inflation are, not what the real level of inflation is. Over the last years, the Inflation rate measured according to standards used during the 1960s-1970s would average 10% per annum. The fact that during heavy inflation periods, the price of High Order Capital Goods falls (but the price of Low Order Consumer Goods rises) is also used in order to trick real figures. To put it bluntly – there is no one perfect formula to calculate the rate of inflation or the difference in living costs. What Shadowstats offers is an overestimation but after comparison to other independent indices and the pre-1980 method of measuring inflation, this overestimation we are talking about is less than 2%. But the "real" inflation rate reported with older methods could be anywhere from 6% to 10%, according to ShadowStats. Inflation eats into Social Security raises every year. That's bad enough. But the coronavirus could also help create the illusion of a higher COLA in 2021. The real interest rate based on the ShadowStats inflation rate shows a very different pattern. It decreases more rapidly than the nominal rate and is negative in every year after 1995. This pattern is not consistent with the Fisher effect, nor is it consistent with common sense. Shadowstats.com is a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States. Shadowstats primarily focuses on inflation, but also keeps track of the money supply, unemployment and GDP by utilizing methodologies abandoned by previous administrations from the Clinton era to the Great Depression.